After a fantastic 4/4 on my Lucky 15 yesterday (9/2 – 10/3 – 3/1 and 11/4) which paid £316.16 I thought that I would tempt fate and write a mini blog for today.
I will eliminate 2 or 3 horses in each race and then touch a few who I think will be in the first 3.
I wanted a nice easy start but was asked to write up for Newmarket so here goes.
13:20, Bahrain Trophy (Group 3) (Class 1) (3YO only) - 1m 5f
To begin I would like to eliminate Good Morning Star who clearly fluked the Cheshire Oaks as has been well held since and I'm my opinion stands no chance. In addition to G-M-S I would like to also eliminate Naseem Alyasmeen who to be fair has been progressing but I do not see the recent form standing up in this grade and also I also think the distance is too far.
Yazdi recently bolted up at Thirsk but I don't think he beat much in that race because the 10 runners have since had 17 runs and only 5 places which isn't exactly something to be excited about. Admittedly 2 miles was too far and he has a small squeak in this race.
Rewarded is a progressive sort who has won 3 of 6 starts. Not too sure if the 3 extra furlongs will hinder the chances of a victory but I see others being stronger at the end and predict a 2nd place finish. Valiant is unbeaten in 2 runs and looks a very nice sort, steps up in trip and is my suggestion of the winner. Shantaram is the 11/8 favourite and I will be laying this as I wonder if his previous run at Newmarket has taken too much out of this colt albeit the ground is better this time out.
Suggestion: Back Valiant – Lay Shantaram at 13/8 on the exchange
13:50, TNT July Stakes (Group 2) (Class 1) (2YO only) - 6f
We can completely write off Lewisham, Heavy Metal and Smoothtalkingrascal in my opinion.
Ahern flopped the start at Mussleburgh but still managed to win and ran very well at Royal Ascot 3 weeks ago, Alhebayeb who is a half brother to many others including Humidor. Only raced twice but has been fantastic in both races but I cannot see him beating Sir Prancealot who was simply amazing in a Sandown listed race. OK he flopped in the Coventry but I have been told that this 2 year old is something very special. Aiden's Gale Force Ten is Hannons main danger and ran very well at the Curragh and could be in the forcast. Birdmana and Chilworth Icon are stepping up in class and don't see them being involved.
Suggestion: Back Sir Prancealot 5/2 B.O.G and a small R/FC Sir P and Gale Force – Lay Ahern @ 4/1
14:25, Goldsmiths Handicap (Class 2) (3YO only) - 1m 2f
A very tough contest to predict so I will again start by eliminating Samba King, Prussian and Zaina
Ghost Protocol ran an absolute shocker last time but I think this might have been an off day, the 3rd
at Goodwood in May was a good run considering the 3 year old blew the start and was only beaten 3 ½ lengths.. I think 28/1 is far too big. Nabucco who is out of Cap Verdi is progressing in each run but I feel that Razorbill will stay the longer trip and continues to make improvement on each run. Greek War has gone up 14lbs and I think this could hamper the chances of a win. Hajras and Fennell Bay would enter calculations but the current form of M Johnstons horses is a concern of mine (you watch them embarrass me now) Hannons Pilgrims Rest is on the up and I wonder if the further 2lbs can prevent a place.
Suggestion: Back Ghost Protocol @ 32 and lay off later at a shorter price later. Razorbill E/W @ 8/1 Lay Greek War for a place @ 2.82 on the exchanges.
15:00, Princess Of Wales's Goldsmiths Stakes (Group 2) (Class 1) (3YO plus) - 1m 4f
I would like to eliminate Sea of Hearbreak, Quest for Peace and Florente because I can see this race being dominated by the top 3 in the market.
Red Cadeaux who has been running in some very good races including the Hardwicke since and is a massive player in this type of race. R.Cadeaux's main danger without doubt is Harris Tweed who recently ran well at Newbury but was shown up in the Yorkshire Cup.
Jakkalberry is the only other contender for me. Since moving to M Botti's yard this 6 year old has made a very encouraging start. Was 5th recently in the Hardwicke and in my opinion could push R.C and H.W in the top 3. Dandino has continue to improve but looks like the step up in grade might be a step too far.
Suggestion: - Back. Jakkalberry E.W 6/1 B.O.G – Small Lay Harris Tweed for a place @ 4/7
15:35, Three Chimneys E.b.f. Maiden Fillies' Stakes (Class 4) (2YO only) - 6f
An absolutely shocking race to predict so I will keep this short.
Fleeting Smile ran fantastically against Newfangled last most and should hopefully progress and looks the best of the form available.
Shuruq will be backed and will probably go off 2nd favourite. Looks a very interesting runner and with Frankie on board is sure to be given a good run. Pearl Sea caught the eye at Donny when finishing 2 ¼ lengths behind Badr Al Badoor. 4th in that race has since placed at Kempton. Certify cannot be written off, similar to Ziggy's Secret who wasn't given a hard race last month.
Suggestion: Ziggy's Secret small E/W 16/1 and Pearl Sea small E.W
16:05, Portland Place Properties Conditions Stakes (Class 3) (3YO only) - 1m
Eastern Sun and Crius look like they will struggle in this company and also the latter simply doesn't settle.
The prices have been adjusted considerably following Gabrial being a Non Runner. I really like Mukhadram who ran well at Royal Ascot last time and previously won easily at Newmarket but was odds on that day and ran very well beating 17 others on debut. Sovereign Debt is now Favourite and does make calculations following his easy win at Ascot in May this year. The Jersey was one of Spencers typical shocking runs and hopefully he can bounce back from that run. Red Duke has been running ok but the ground will be against him. This leads to my winner which could be Mister Music who ran an absolute blinder in the Britannia finishing 2nd of 29 runners. (I backed him that day) I think he will progress and 7/1 could be too big.
Suggestion: - Back Mister Music @ 7/1 and Lay Sovereign Debt @ 9/4.
16:40, Egerton House Stables Handicap (Class 3) (3YO plus) - 5f
As this isn't a Bodugi race. I will only say that I think Pearl Blue 11/1, Showboating 8/1 and Jedward 12/1 look like small bets to be made.
Shockingly, I do not like Rocket Rob even though I was at Bath and see him Dead Heat and wonder if he will flop. I certainly am not getting excited at the 7/1 price which is available.